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Our Higher Power blows it again

The City on the HillP.Z. Myers, at Pharyngula, points us to a very well-done study by Gregory S. Paul, in Creighton University’s Journal of Religion & Society, that examines the correlation between popular religiosity in a culture, belief in evolution, and a wide range of social dysfunctions, including homicide, teenage abortion, sexually transmitted diseases, and juvenile-adult mortality.

The data are mainly from a cross-national collaborative study conducted in 1998 that interviewed more than 20,000 people in 17 of the world’s developed and developing democracies. Paul also includes data from Portugal, as an example of a second world European democracy. A society’s level of religiosity was measured by its citizens’ belief in a higher power, their acceptance of a literal interpretation of the Bible, frequency of prayer, and church attendance. Acceptance of evolution was also measured and shows a strong negative correlation, as might be expected, with levels of religiosity.

Not surprisingly, the US scores high on the popular religiosity scale. “Japan, Scandinavia, and France are the most secular nations…[;] the United States is the only prosperous first world nation to retain rates of religiosity otherwise limited to the second and third worlds”.

Also not surprisingly, at least to some of us, the US also scores high on every measure of dysfunction, spectacularly high on some of them, such as murder, teenage abortion, sexually transmitted diseases, and violence by schoolchildren. (Abortion rates, by the way, were only taken into account from those countries in which abortion is at least as legal and accessible as it is in the US.)

That high positive correlation is not an anomaly; it carries across the board.

In general, higher rates of belief in and worship of a creator correlate with higher rates of homicide, juvenile and early adult mortality, STD infection rates, teen pregnancy, and abortion in the prosperous democracies…. The most theistic prosperous democracy, the U.S., is exceptional, but not in the manner [Benjamin] Franklin predicted. The United States is almost always the most dysfunctional of the developing democracies, sometimes spectacularly so, and almost always scores poorly. The view of the U.S. as a “shining city on the hillâ€? to the rest of the world is falsified when it comes to basic measures of societal health. … No democracy is known to have combined strong religiosity and popular denial of evolution with high rates of societal health. Higher rates of non-theism and acceptance of human evolution usually correlate with lower rates of dysfunction, and the least theistic nations are usually the least dysfunctional. None of the strongly secularized, pro-evolution democracies is experiencing high levels of measurable dysfunction….

If the data showed that the U.S. enjoyed higher rates of societal health than the more secular, pro-evolution democracies, then the opinion that popular belief in a creator is strongly beneficial to national cultures would be supported. Although they are by no means utopias, the populations of secular democracies are clearly able to govern themselves and maintain societal cohesion. Indeed, the data examined in this study demonstrates that only the more secular, pro-evolution democracies have, for the first time in history, come closest to achieving practical “cultures of life� that feature low rates of lethal crime, juvenile-adult mortality, sex related dysfunction, and even abortion. The least theistic secular developing democracies such as Japan, France, and Scandinavia have been most successful in these regards. The non-religious, pro-evolution democracies contradict the dictum that a society cannot enjoy good conditions unless most citizens ardently believe in a moral creator. The widely held fear that a Godless citizenry must experience societal disaster is therefore refuted. Contradicting these conclusions requires demonstrating a positive link between theism and societal conditions in the first world with a similarly large body of data - a doubtful possibility in view of the observable trends.

There is [also] evidence that within the U.S. strong disparities in religious belief versus acceptance of evolution are correlated with similarly varying rates of societal dysfunction, the strongly theistic, anti-evolution south and mid-west having markedly worse homicide, mortality, STD, youth pregnancy, marital and related problems than the northeast where societal conditions, secularization, and acceptance of evolution approach European norms

The conclusion is inescapable: religious democracies are more dysfunctional; secular democracies are healthier.

Paul’s paper deals only with correlations, not causes. It’s possible that a highly dysfunctional society drives people to religion. But Paul points out that his analysis of the data demonstrates the need for more research, not only to test his findings, but to start looking into the causal factors underlying the correlation between societal dysfunction and high levels of religious belief.

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The New Yorker’s take on ID

Eustace Tilley - New Yorker mascotDay No. 1:

And the Lord God said, “Let there be light,� and lo, there was light. But then the Lord God said, “Wait, what if I make it a sort of rosy, sunset-at-the-beach, filtered half-light, so that everything else I design will look younger?�

“I’m loving that,� said Buddha. “It’s new.�

“You should design a restaurant,� added Allah.

In this week’s Shouts & Murmers, Paul Rudnick has the funniest take on Intelligent Design I’ve seen so far, at least from someone who’s outside the ID camp. Check out the full 7 days.

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The view from inside the circle

The Seventeenth Skeptics Circle, that is, hosted, in a positively brilliant rendition, by decorabilia. The company is exceptional: a lot of smart bloggers with skeptical takes on a wide range of subjects, from gay penguins to Atlantis. Some of it’s funny, some of it’s thought-provoking, some of it’s instructive. It’s all well written and well worth reading. And I’m pleased and honored to report that I’m in the circle this time ’round, with my own take on the nature of belief and the nature of God. Thanks for including me, Jim.

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The Bounds of Reason

Cenk Uygur, at the Huffington Post, has an encouraging piece in which he points out the foolishness of labeling onself a “conservative” or a “liberal”:

Some people who have commented on my posts have wondered whether I am a liberal or a conservative because honestly in my writings sometimes both labels come up. The fact is I am neither. I believe in this crazy philosophy called — the bounds of reason.

When taxes for the highest bracket were at 70%, that was outside the bounds of reason. I supported Ronald Reagan. When liberals called for unilateral disarmament, that was outside the bounds of reason. I supported Republicans. When campus liberals (who obviously didn’t understand the term) were for curtailing freedom of speech in the name of harassment codes, that was outside the bounds of reason. I supported conservatives.

When Republicans claim they want to drown government in the bathtub, that is outside the bounds of reason. I support the Democrats. When George W. Bush takes us into a senseless war against a country that did not attack us, that is outside the bounds of reason. I support his opposition. When conservatives argue that deficits don’t matter, then I’m no longer a conservative.

What would our political discourse look like if a critical mass of voters tired of the media-defined labels and issues and started to think rationally about what’s wrong and what needs to be done to make that right?

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Feel Safe or Be Safe?

CriminalMy friend Suhith Wickrema sent me the following analysis of the position two leading candidates for Mayor of Cincinnati have taken regarding crime. His is a cogent analysis. I find it persuasive.

Cincinnati has a real battle for Mayor this election and the issue of public safety has dominated the political discussion. Three of the candidates have announced their Public Safety plans. Let’s examine their proposals.

Mr. Pepper and Mr. Winburn tout the “broken window” theory popularized by John Q. Wilson and George L. Kelling who wrote, in 1982: “one unrepaired broken window is a signal that no one cares and, breaking more windows costs nothing.”

When it comes to policing theory this translates to zero tolerance for “quality of life crimes.” This was the rational used by New York City Police Commissioner William Bratton in the 1990’s to start arresting minor lawbreakers such as “squeegee” men and panhandlers.

Mr. Pepper and Mr. Winburn would have us believe that if there are no squeegee men and panhandlers, dope peddlers will stop selling dope, gang-bangers will stop shooting each other and men will stop raping women. Even discredited theories take twenty years to come to Cincinnati!

Mr. Pepper’s plan to decrease the violent crime rate in Cincinnati is to have zero tolerance for “quality of life concerns” such as “noise graffiti and litter.” He makes an obligatory mention of treatment, but no mention of increasing treatment slots. He claims that Cincinnati is “under staffed when it comes to its police force.”

Mr. Winburn promises to increase the Cincinnati Police Department by 200 officers at a cost of $8.5 million. He also promises to build a new jail. He does not say how he is going to find the money for these projects. Although Mr. Winburn claims that he will fight violent crime from “all directions and angles” he does not address treatment.

Mr. Pepper and Mr. Winburn cite New York City as a model in reducing crime –– is it the best model? During the same period when New York City took this approach and coincidentally saw a reduction in crime rates, San Francisco took a different approach –– alternative sentencing and community involvement –– and saw a larger decrease in crime rates than in New York City. From 1995 to 1998 San Francisco’s violent crime rate went down 33%. NY City’s violent crime rate went down only 26 % in the same time period.

While claiming that the CPD is understaffed, both candidates have omitted some interesting figures about the CPD compared to other cities: Cincinnati has 31 police officers per 10,000 residents while San Francisco has 29, Louisville has 27, Columbus has 25, and Lexington has 19. The salary of an entry-level officer in Cincinnati is $37,487, in Columbus it’s $30,480, in Lexington $30,274, and in Louisville $27,689. (All figures are for the year 2000)

Mr. Mallory is pushing boot camps to fight crimes. Boot camps may satisfy the punitive instinct in most of us. Boot camps by themselves are purely punitive and have not shown to be effective. However, Mr. Mallory does include the after care component for boot camps that have shown to reduce crime.

Having a parent in prison is a strong predictor that their child will end up in prison. A policy that promises to lockup people will only increase the prison population. It will not reduce crime. It will not reduce the number of victims. The ‘Lock them up’ mentality makes most of us feel safe. It does not make us safe. So, think before you vote! It is time that we got smart on crime!

Thanks, Suhith!

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Believing in, believing that, believing

God separating darkness from lightMy friend Paul points out that the term “believing in God� represents an unusual idiom. In most other situations in which it is used, the phrase “believe in� means something slightly but importantly different from what it means when someone says that she “believes in� God.

If Emily’s husband is accused of philandering, Emily might say that she believes in her husband, and everyone would understand her meaning. Just so, when Colin Powell says that he believes in his President, or when a businessman states his belief in the free market, or a comrade at the barricades says that he believes in Communism, or even when a fan believes in the Yankees or the Mets. In each of those cases, “believing inâ€? is an assertion that the believed-in entity is trustworthy. In no case is it an assertion that the entity actually exists, as it is when someone asserts a “belief in” God. There is never any doubt that Emily’s husband exists, as does the POTUS, Communism, free market capitalism, and the Yankees.

I have no doubt that God exists, in exactly the same way that Communism exists, and the Yankees, and the Office of the President of the United States. God’s existence is validated by the same process that validates the existence of those other entities: people “believe in” Him, in the same way that people believe in Communism and the Yankees. That is, they believe that those entities are what their promotional literature and their apologists claim them to be; they have those particular powers and virtues; they’ve won those victories, defeated those enemies, rewarded, in just those ways, their particular friends and supporters. Indeed, it is more than simple validation at work here. The belief is what makes the existence real. Without believers, similar entities—the Easter Bunny, Almighty Jove, the Gold Standard, the Divine Right of Kings, the Mudville Nine—enter the realm of fairy tale and legend.

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Buddhism and Christianity

The following post is in response to a request that Bill, over at Faith Commons, made for a “quick list of parallels between Buddhism and Christianity.” It is cross-posted, in a somewhat different form, to the Faith Commons site.

Unfortunately, Bill, there’s nothing quick about Buddhism. And, while there are certainly some parallels between the teachings of Jesus and those of Siddhartha Gautama*, the Buddha, there are very few similarities between Buddhism and Christianity. I’m going to take a stab at giving you an overview, of the similarities and of the differences (always with the understanding that this is as I see it, and I would hesitate to call myself a Buddhist; rather, I am one who finds the teachings of the Buddha more complete and truer than those of any other sage I know.)

There are three things, I think, that most clearly distinguish the Buddhist teachings from the Christian scriptures: the authenticity and coherence of the scriptural documents, the differing natures of Jesus and the Buddha, and the vast differences in the core doctrines. I’ll take these one at a time.
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First, the footnote…

Kamma and rebirth

Cakka, the Wheel of the DammaOver at Faith Commons, last week, I made a flippant comment in response to a post by Bill questioning the relationship between the organized Church and the teachings of Jesus, and he challenged my flippancy with a serious request for “a quick list of parallels” between the teachings of Jesus and the teachings of the Buddha. I’ve been working on a response to that challenge, which I will post here and there very shortly. But in the course of writing that, what began as a footnote glossing the Buddhist concept of rebirth has turned into something way too long for a footnote, so I’ve made it into a post of its own, and here it goes.

This one is the sticking point for a lot of people. They may find Buddhism appealing for its rationality, its common sense. But then they come to the concept of rebirth and they balk. I did. It took me a lot of study, and a lot of thinking, to come to terms with an idea that I found so improbable, so difficult to reconcile with a doctrine that was in other regards so clear and persuasive. I came to realize that my problem with the Buddhist notion of rebirth was based, as so many of my problems are, on unexamined preconceptions derived from the popular culture in which I’ve grown up. When I heard the term “rebirth”, what filled my mind was more Shirley MacLaine than the Buddha; I associated the concept with all sorts of New Age nonsense, with Doonesbury’s Boopsie channeling Hunk Ra, with Mehitabel’s insistence that she is a reincarnation of Cleopatra. And that, of course, is not what it’s about, at all.
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Who’s the enemy?

George W. GodCenk Uygur, in his article in The Huffington Post, is uncommonly clear-eyed and persuasive in making his point that we are not engaged in a War Against Terror, but, rather, in a War Against Fundamentalism. He points out that we cannot win a war if we don’t know who the enemy is, and the fact that we don’t know the enemy in the “War Against Terror” is becoming more and more clear each day. Uygur argues that it’s pointless to fight George Bush for starting this misguided war, and that the administration’s concept of a War Against Terror is meaningless; and he asks, “What are we really fighting against?”

I have a simple answer – fundamentalism. Muslim fundamentalists believe it is their moral duty to fight a jihad against the West. They are guided by their strict, literal reading of the Koran (helped along by hateful imams who select the worst parts of the Koran).

But we are not just aligned against Muslim fundamentalists. The problem is broader than that. It is Jewish fundamentalists like the Gaza settlers and Christian fundamentalists like Tom DeLay who want to drive us further into this conflict. They also rely on their absurd interpretations of their religious texts.

The point that we have fundamentalists in this country, and that they are in power, is the important point that Uygur makes.

[Christian fundamentalists] believe that Israel should rebuild the Temple on the Mount, thereby destroying holy Muslim sites and assuredly starting a gigantic war. Finally, they think that when this happens, Armageddon will ensue, most of the people on this Earth will die and Santa Claus, I mean Jesus Christ, will come back to save them (and only them). There’s another word for these people – crazy.

Our former Attorney General, John Ashcroft, is a fundamentalist. He anointed himself in holy oils before he took the oath of office. You know who does that? Crazy people.

Our President thinks God talks to him. You know who thinks that? Crazy people.

We need to understand that the fundamentalist in the White House is no different, in his basic craziness, than the fundamentalist in the pulpit or the fundamentalist in the synagogue or the fundamentalist in the mosque. They are all crazy, and they are collaborating (although they don’t see it that way and would deny it) in bringing about the apocolypse they all crave.

Uygur thinks that our failure to engage them is rooted in our politeness: you don’t criticize another man’s beliefs. But we have to engage them; our civilization depends on it.

Right now, it’s completely one-sided. The fundamentalists in this country attack with impunity and the secular Americans sit back for fear of offending the crazies. It’s time to hit them back (proverbially, violence is usually the refuge of weak-minded fundamentalists, not thinking, rational people).

It is not acceptable to be against teaching valid science to our children because you think your Book tells you to. It is not acceptable to hate gay people because you think your Book tells you to. It is not acceptable to deny other citizens their privacy because you think your Book tells you to. It is not acceptable to be one-sided in dealing with the Middle East and drive us all into war because you think your Book tells you to. It is not acceptable to root for Armageddon and try to take steps towards getting there because you think your Book tells you to.

Thinking you talk to God doesn’t qualify you to lead the nation – it qualifies you for a mental institution. The time for accommodation has come to an end.

Well said, Cent Uygur. Your war is one in which I will enlist, gladly.

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Pot of Gold

There is some exceptional science writing in the blogs. Over at Brent Rasmussen’s Unscrewing the Inscrutable, DarkSyd has posted Cosmology 101: Somewhere Over the Rainbow. With grace, style, rigor and admirable concision, and with some fine illustrations, Syd retells one of the classic tales of science:

The old story goes that he who follows the rainbow to the end will find a pot of gold. It is but a legend of course, there is no end to find. Rainbows we now know are an artifact of optics. But metaphorically we can make such a journey. It will be a quest in mind only, fueled by burning curiosity, and it will end in a treasure immeasurable by the dollar or the Pound Sterling. Our guide will be a brilliant rebel, a Rhodes Scholar, turned Lawyer, turned scientist. And what he found, somewhere over the rainbow, was and remains perhaps the greatest single, scientific discovery of all time.

The hero of the story, of course, is Edwin Hubble, and the story concerns his discovery of the fact that our entire universe is expanding, rapidly.

Hubble had the benefit of two new analytic techniques previous astronomers did not have. He had both the distances of several Galaxies from the Cepheid Variable Technique, and he had the redshifts of those same galaxies using the spectrum he obtained form the Wilson Observatory. And, when he correlated those two sets of data, he found that the further away a galaxy was from us, the more it was red-shifted!

The conclusion is pretty easy to visualize. The galaxies were moving away from and the velocity with which they were receding was a function of their distance form us: Either our Milky Way Galaxy is the center of the universe and every other galaxy was hauling ass away from it. Or all the galaxies were moving away from each other, ours included.

The only bone I have to pick with DarkSyd’s otherwise excellent article is in his first sentence, in which he dismisses the Pot of Gold Hypothesis as “only a legend of course”. As evidence otherwise, I present the following photograph, taken a couple of years ago from the deck of Fairview, the cabin we stay in at Hiram Blake Camp, on Penobscot Bay in Maine. It was an early morning double rainbow, and it was entirely contained within the small cove on the shore of which our cabin sits. One leg of the rainbow entered the water in front of the pine trees on the farther shore, and the other leg ended exactly at the stern of our little sailboat Anjana. And while a quick investigatory row out to the boat found no literal gold, still, Anjana is worth her weight in the stuff, and the rainbow, we like to think, was a confirmation of her true worth.

The End of the Rainbow

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